By ADM 
- Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes retail sentiment is at one of its lowest points due to the lack of a clear alt season.
- Although Bitcoin and a select few other projects have performed well, the majority of alts have been stagnant since last cycle.
- However, he argues this means altcoins are actually set up for a rally, thanks to improved regulatory clarity and industry adoption.
Has the crypto market peaked? Have we already watched as altcoin season came and went? Or is the true bull run yet to take shape?
These are all questions tugging at the sleeves of investors globally. And while nobody can know for sure, it seems that gloom has taken hold from a retail perspective. The cycle is done, the ‘good ol days’ are over and sentiment is low.
Like, really low.
But regulatory clarity is coming to the industry, governments are strongly considering Strategic Reserves and institutions are jumping on like bees to honey.
So what’s with the pessimism, and is it warranted?
Related: US SEC Acknowledges Filings for Solana-Based ETFs, Signalling Potential Approval
Retail Loves Alt Season, Not Boring Old Bitcoin
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, is a little confused at the melancholia seeping through retail investors.
From a risk-adjusted perspective, it is arguably the best time in history to invest in crypto…And yet…retail investors are wallowing in despair. It’s almost as if they are living in an alternate reality.
Matt Hougan Bitwise CIO So what’s the problem?
Hougan believes it’s the lack of a distinct altcoin season. While some major, top-ten cryptocurrencies have had a pretty enjoyable 12 months, most have paled in comparison to Bitcoin.
BTC is the institution’s darling — the lowest-risk, highest-cap asset in the market.
But retail investors want altcoins, and they want them now. They want the rollercoasters, the 500% daily increases, and celebrities endorsing random coins that get rug pulled just a week later.
They want the adventure, the adrenaline.
Retail crypto loves to speculate on altcoins, and the lack of an “altcoin season” has them depressed
Matt Hougan Bitwise CIO Crisis Creates Opportunity, Hougan Argues Altcoins Primed to Rally
Hougan believes that, pretty clearly, the bullish institutions circling BTC like vultures are on the money (literally).
It’s very easy to be bullish on bitcoin right now. So far this year, ETFs have bought ~47,000 BTC and corporations have bought ~57,000 BTC, while the bitcoin network has minted just ~18,000 new BTC
Matt Hougan Bitwise CIO Yeah, those supply and demand numbers are pretty tasty.
But Hougan believes the altcoin pessimism isn’t warranted. In fact, he thinks that the long-term ‘setup for altcoins is stronger than at any point in history’.
Primarily, regulatory clarity is primed to make a huge impact on adoption. With stablecoins a particular focus for institutions and governments, the networks hosting these assets (like Ethereum and Solana) could see significant growth.
Retail sentiment is bad in crypto right now, and to me, that signals opportunity.
Matt Hougan Bitwise CIO